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Gartner estimates HP will sell 3 million tablets by the end of the year, 9 million by 2015

By: , 4/11/2011 1:15 pm | 21 comments

Engadget posted an interesting table this morning. According to Gartner research, the tablet market will grow from 17.6 million units to a whopping 294.1 million by 2015.

They estimate that HP will take a 3% share of that market…

Interestingly enough, they see Apple dominating the tablet market for the foreseeable future and Android a close second. Not sure I buy this chart for a few reasons.

  1. There will be umpteengillion Android tablets by 2015…I would be surprised if Apples offerings will be able to outsell ALL of the combined.
  2. They actually have MeeGo on there? Really?! They even have it selling almost a million units this year. Who is making this?
  3. They believe the Playbook (QNX) is going to have a mighty 5 – 10% of the market share. This would suprise me a lot…there just isn’t much going for that tablet, but maybe I am underestimating the BB faithful.
  4. Windows isn’t even on the list…by 2015 Windows 8 tablets will be out in full force, and I have learned that you never bet against Microsoft…they won’t be at the top, but they will make a showing at least.
  5. I think they are underestimating the power of the HP business initiatives. HP is going to push HARD to get the TouchPad and the like all over the enterprise space. This will push into consumers as well.

Of course, I could be completely wrong here…what are your thoughts?

Source: Engadget

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About David Baxter

David is the founder and Editor-in-Chief of webOSroundup. When not toiling away at WOR he is usually with his family, at church, building a website of some kind or another, or playing a video game. @davidbbaxter
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  • http://twitter.com/TheTechChat TheTechChat

    I just think it’s way too premature to make this kind of call. The tablet market’s still nascent, and we’ll know a great deal more about who’s going to get any kind of traction by the end of 2011. Not that analyst predictions like this ever really turn out to be valid, unless they’re really obvious. Which isn’t in this case, I don’t think.

    The webOS fanboy in me would like to predict greater success for HP, but the historian in me predicts that Android will have the lion’s share by 2015. I really do think it’s the Microsoft model all over again (minus the licensing fees, which of course argues even more in favor of it): there will just be too many different kinds of tablets made by too many vendors with too many differentiating features for Android to not be in a significant lead. That doesn’t mean that Apple and HP and RIM can’t sell millions of units, only that Android is going to grab the major share of the market.

    Or not.

  • http://twitter.com/SirKneeland John Kneeland

    My thoughts are Gartner is usually wrong on every market share prediction ever.

    • Anonymous

      The only thing those analysts can predict is the growth of your fingernails. If you don’t cut them…

    • Mr. White

      Thums up

    • Mr. White

      Thums up

    • Mr. White

      Thums up

    • Mr. White

      Thums up

    • Mr. White

      Thums up

  • http://twitter.com/SirKneeland John Kneeland

    My thoughts are Gartner is usually wrong on every market share prediction ever.

  • Asterix

    I sure hope webOS will do better than that. Plus, tablets will be a reflection of what smartphones will be doing. HP will need to do a lot of investment in advertising, have a TP2 by early next year and a few more phones by the same time. Four form factors wil be needed: Pre 3, Veer, Pixie and a slab phone. That’s all they’ll need, but they need to have all this by early next year, plus a TP2, plus a huge advertising campaign. By 2015 we could be #2 at least if they do things right. As for #1 I’d bet my money on Apple, #3 on Android, and Windows #4… RIM and Moto will be next with close to zero market share

    • http://twitter.com/2254 Michael Marr

      So, what will be the upgrades you want in the TP2? Availability maybe? Wow.

  • http://www.briandeyo.blogspot.com Brian Deyo

    I think the biggest problem with this report is the lack of Microsoft. I think they lose all credibility by not including Microsoft. I’m not sure if they have good reasoning, but even with strict rules, I just don’t see that as a reasonable omission.

    I would say by 2015 the % split will look like this

    Leader – 30%
    2nd Place – 25%
    3rd Place – 25%
    the rest

    However, the order is the tricky part and the speed at which the market picks the winners. I think iOS will still be around as will Android and Windows. The two that are questionable is webOS and QNX. If what I want to come true, does, webOS will be in second place. The problem, is I think in this market it is just all or nothing and there won’t be 5 players in a few years. There will probably be three or maybe four dominant platforms with one on the way out. Apple will be there for sure. You have to think Android will as well, but maybe not. Windows will be on a tablet in some form. It already is, and it won’t go away until it grabs some of the market. So with that in mind, here are the numbers I think that we’ll see in 2015.

    Android – 30% – Growing share – they have become the new windows
    iOS – 25% – steady and falling because of Job’s absence and Android winning the “open” mind-share battle
    webOS – 25% – steady and growing with the market
    Windows – 15% – declining
    Others (QNX, Meego, Amazon -kindle platform, etc.) – 5% – declining

  • DCIFER

    I’m chalking this report up as Apple fanboyism. To say that HP and Microsoft can’t make a dent in the Apple/Andriod market share is a joke. Microsoft and HP should go all out and sell ecosystem bundles. What I mean by that is sell a laptop/desktop, a tablet, a printer, and a cell phone as a bundle. In HP’s point of this you can get the Webos exprience to more faster couple that with either a desktop application and you’ll have moist spots in a lot of pants. Then sell that idea to big companies…iPad who…Andriod what. I think the ecosystem that HP is spinning is the key to keep WebOS in the picture.

    • http://twitter.com/2254 Michael Marr

      You could assume all manufacturers will make better and cheaper products as well. In 5 years all will likely have multitasking, 512 gig SSD drives, telephony, 10 hour batteries, and as many cameras as you want for less than $600. Throw in market consolidation, entry of new players and possible new open source operating systems. Where were smartphones five years ago — Treos and Blackberry’s?

  • Marv

    I disagree only that andriod will be on top, then apple, third Microsoft because business trust microsoft. I think hp will close the webos initiative by 2015. Their business model is flawed. The eprint app for their printers is available for apple and android but not for current webOS owners??? If you don’t put ur products first you don’t win.

  • Raun

    Another slow news day here in webos land. Like most others, this is a story about remains-to-be-seen devices announced months ago on yet-to-be-announced carriers. Nothing to see here, folks, move along.

  • PalmOn

    You can’t make an informed prediction about a product that hasn’t even come to market yet. I think I just lost all respect for Gartner.

  • Nealius

    You are ALL wrong…this is the way it shall go down: iOS will hold a 90% share as they will buy they will have enough money to buy ALL of their own tablets sending their numbers through the roof, then, with all the new money they make from their tablet sales, they will buy the planet mars and rename it iMars and they will only sell iOS tablets there. At #2 with an 8% share, webOS will turn heads with their sleek SpiderWebOS that will be featured in the film Spiderman VII: Attack of the Apps…the webOS tablet will actually dispense sticky spider web! RIM will hold the last 2% of the share due to the fact that their tablets will actually smell and taste like real blackberrys. Where’s Android you say? Android leaves the market entirely after realizing there was more money in the steroid market and they will change their name to simply: Roid…(you know you can hear the robotic voice say that in your head). So there you go, that is my best guess as to what the tablet market will be like in 2015…GIVE ME A PRE 2!

  • JMWPainter

    I think you are absolutely right!

  • Malette

    Really? I don’t think so. My thoughts which don’t always mean much, but mine none the less is: android about 40%, iOS about 25%, webOS 15%, microsoft 10%, all others the remaining 10% with RIM leading that bottom pack. This all depends on many factors of course. 1. Droid maintains their momentum. They are producing quickly with many manufacturers and pretty much all networks. 2. People will eventually see apples flaws and get bored with it, but will maintain some faithfulls like us with webOS. 3. HP will hang on because of their enterprise strategies, but will need more consumer appeal to increase their share. The average user has to see it’s value which I don’t have total faith in HP being able to show that.
    That’s just my 2 cents. As for me I’m riding this webOS wave until HP makes it more HP and less palm which I see happening by 2015.

  • Joseph

    The question keeps coming up: what exactly will webOS do that iOS or Android won’t? I personally do not judge that question as answered so far. So I am struggling to see why webOS has pertinency.